The Industrial Confidence Index (ICI) jumped up 2.1 percent in September, 2016. This brought the ICI up to 88.8 points, indicating good performance by the economy, according to renowned Brazilian businessman Flavio Maluf. The process used to arrive at the ICI requires long-term trend analysis. It is composed of results from surveys of Brazil’s industrial sector. They surveys are done by the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s Brazilian Institute of Economics. This venerable institution had gathered over 1,120 opinions from the many business leaders across the vast country of Brazil.
In 2015, the country’s industrial sector fell economically, leading to lower confidence in Brazil as a safe investment environment. Flavio Maluf is the CEO of Eucatex, in his native Brazil. Since a low point for his own business in August, as well as many others, Maluf has upgraded his outlook to a much more positive one in the last few months since that downturn. He points out the important fact that the ICI surveys highlight a marked improvement in every industry’s profits for 63 percent of the companies queried. This is a significant trend that gives a much more rosy outlook for the next six months.
Flavio Maluf had already arrived at the same positive conclusion about Brazil’s economy well before the ICI numbers were announced. His analysis process has proved repeatedly accurate for predicting trends in the market. Although stocks had dropped so badly in August, he said at the time that he saw signs that everything would turn around soon. That it did! Another economic index he follows is called the Level of Use of Installed Capacity. That index jumped up a whole percentage point in September, 2016, the greatest improvement for a single month since the troubles in the markets in 2015.